Ladder — 1→2 44.8% (7,340/16,386) · 2→3 46.6% (3,424/7,340) · 4+ orders 11.1% (1,811/16,386)

Cohort trend — 1→2 within 90d: 2026-Q1 39.1% (n=1302) vs trailing-year avg 42.8% (n=9090) — the leading indicator

Subscriptions — 1,399 active · +620/−559 last 90d · 41.8% churn

Shopify channel, email-identified, non-cancelled. Rungs 3→4+ omitted (single-customer noise; deep repeat is carried by the subscription line).